Friday, December 11, 2015

Kazakhstan Drug Trafficking Model Process-Porter's Five Forces

Porter’s Five Forces
Amanda Whitaker

Description
Porter’s Five Forces is both a modifier and a method that creates a framework to assess competitor rivalry within an industry based on five main categories of factors: Bargaining Power of Suppliers, Bargaining Power of Buyers, Threat of New Entry, Threat of Substitutes, and Rivalry of Competitors. Porter’s Five Forces “is used most often to determine the ‘attractiveness’ of an industry, and this is certainly indispensible for companies and investors deciding whether to exit, enter, or invest in an industry (Magretta, 2011).”

Strengths
·         Can be applied to a variety of industries. Porter’s Five Forces can be applied to most any industry within the Business/Competitive realm of Intelligence. It is a business tool, so it is very flexible within that area.
·         Good place to start when assessing or formulating strategy. This model is very useful when a company is trying to decide what strategy to pursue because organizes all of the relevant information in such a way that one can get a broad view of what they are dealing with. 
·         Answers the question of what is going on in the industry. When all of the information about the industry is outlined in this model, it easily and clearly shows the company what their industry looks like.
·         Encompasses relationships that are fundamental to all commerce. The model makes it easy for the company to visualize how the relationships work, especially in regards to the Bargaining Power of the Buyer and Supplier as well as the Existing Competitive Rivalry within the industry.
·         Best used when assessing broad levels of an industry. The model makes it easy to view the industry from a macro-level perspective.
·         Provides a nice visual representation of an industry. The model is set up in such a way that it makes organizing information very easy and very clear so that a clear vision of the industry is perceived.

Weaknesses
·         Defining the industry is difficult. Sometimes a company can serve in multiple industries which could make it harder for the company to choose which one is having the most impact.
·         Most applicable to analyzing simple market structures. When assessing more complex aspects, the process will not yield strategically relevant information because that is not what the model is meant to do.
·          Only focuses on one aspect of the market environment. There are many other aspects of the business realm outside of the Five Forces that impact a company and how it should strategize to become as successful as possible.
·         Model is very static, so it is only useful for short or medium range objectives. The model is very focused on the present and does not allow for past information to be incorporated into the process.
·         False conclusions can occur when the model is taken as fact. Especially for this problem because the model is used as a modifier rather than a method, the use aims more towards being a brainstorming tool which does not yield strategically relevant information.
·         Results are highly dependent on the analyst(s) using it which allows for bias. Due to the fact that the analyst(s) do the research, input the information, and weights the impact of the forces without using a more structured technique means that there is a lot of room for error.

How-To
Step 1. Define your industry. Obviously, one must know which industry they are a part of so that they can research and analyze the most relevant and correct information.
   Step 2. Organize observations of relevant factors in each category. This will ensure that the information is organized effectively and can be analyzed in the right context.
Step 3. Mark the key factors on the diagram and summarize the size and scale of the forces. This step is the analysis step that will ultimately have the biggest impact on what the company decides to do next to be the most successful.
Step 4. Look over the situation and see how it affects you. This will help the analyst form an idea of what strategy makes the most sense to pursue.
Step 5. Based on your analysis of the situation, determine what would be most beneficial for your group to do moving forward. This step determines what the company will do next to develop and improve their success.

Personal Application
Porter’s Five Forces was applied to the law enforcement/national security problem of illicit drug trafficking in and through Kazakhstan as a business of crime type of model. Because the point of Porter’s Five Forces is to assess competitive rivalry within an industry, for this specific problem the analyst must look at it through the lens of an analyst working for a drug cartel or organized crime group that would like to get into the drug trafficking industry in Kazakhstan.

In order to start the process of researching, it is helpful to create a blank version of the Porter’s Five Forces model. While researching, keep in mind all of the different aspects that that make up each of the Five Forces so that the information can be filled in and organized from the beginning. In order to do this when applying the Five Forces to problems outside of the Business/Competitive realm, the analyst will need to translate the terms into terms that fit with their problem. This may take some time depending on the complexity of the problem. Once the translations are done, the difficulty of the project will most likely decrease.

For this specific problem, finding good, specific information was a challenge which probably affected the outcome. If the analyst seeks out the assistance of subject area experts like was used in this example, then that could help mitigate some of those intelligence gaps. It is also important to note that when using this method/modifier, especially in a realm outside of Business, there will be specific factors within the Five Forces that either will not apply to the analyst’s problem or cannot be translated effectively which are issues that the analyst must be aware of.

Once the research is complete and the information is organized into the forces, the next step is to determine which forces have the most impact on the analyst’s “firm” which in this case is a drug cartel or organized crime group. In order to do this, each of the forces can be weighted with a “++” which signifies that that force is very much in favor of the analyst’s firm, a “+” which signifies that the force is in favor of the analyst’s firm, a “- -” which infers that the force is strongly against the analyst’s firm, or a “-” which suggests that the force is against the analyst’s firm.

In this specific problem, the Threat of New Entry received a “- -” based on the research. The most important factors to this force is that there are very low barriers to entry into the illicit drug trade and very many government and international efforts to combat this problem that are in place.  The Bargaining Power of the Buyer received a rating of “-” mainly due to the low switching costs of buying from another individual or organization. The Bargaining Power of the Supplier received a score of “+” mainly due to no price floor or ceiling that is in place and because there are no regulations, hence no limit on how much of the product can be produced. The Threat of Substitution received a rating of “+” due to the fact that the product itself is basically static which implies a low threat of substitution. If a person wants a certain drug, then they want only that drug and will most likely not switch to another product. Lastly, Competition Among Existing Competitors received a rating of “-” because there are similar products throughout the industry (not much room for differentiation), there are hundreds of existing competitors and the number is still growing pretty rapidly, and there is also a large market for illicit drugs.

Based on that information, the analyst can infer that there are more reasons against entering the illicit drug trade than there are reasons for it, so in the context of this model it does not make much sense for a new cartel or organization to get involved. Even so, there are other possible reasons outside the context of this model that can have an effect on whether or not it is a smart business decision to enter the illicit drug trade.





Figure 1: Porter's Five Forces of Competitive Strategy. Source: CGMA[1]
For Further Information
Magretta, J. (2011). Understanding Michael Porter. Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Publishing.



[1] CGMA. (2013). Porter’s five forces of competitive position analysis. Retrieved from: http://www.cgma.org/Resources/Tools/essential-tools/Pages/porters-five-forces.aspx?TestCookiesEnabled=redirect

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